Ulta Beauty, Inc.

ULTA Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Delayed 15 min
Last close
$609.24
Oct 16, 2026
52-week range
$443.60 — $714.97
-15% from high
Market cap
26B
Diluted basis
Dividend yield
—
No dividend declared
P/E
22.2
Trailing
Filing.fyi verdict · Oct 16, 2026

Deep value.

Sales grew 9.7% to $12.39 billion, but profit and SG&A costs moved the other way.

Bullish Beneish: -2.41Altman Z″: 3.84Piotroski: 6/9
RED DEEP 83 / 100
Composite Health
Forensic readings · derived from the latest filing

The four readings.

Each score answers a different question. The composite at the top is the average; the disagreement below is the story.
Beneish M Earnings manipulation
-2.41
Clean
−3.0 threshold −1.78 +1.0
Altman Z″ Bankruptcy proximity
3.84
Safe
0 threshold 1.10 / 2.60 4.0
Piotroski F Fundamental health (0–9)
6
Mixed
0 threshold 6+ 9
AI synthesis · written from this company's SEC filings · not investment advice

What the filing actually says.

AI · forensic preset

The filings show a company growing its top line while its profit measures moved the other way. Net sales grew 9.7% to $12.39 billion, yet net income declined to $1.15 billion and operating income declined to $1.53 billion. By simple division of the reported figures, operating margin fell from roughly 13.8% to 12.3%. The MD&A frames long-term operating profit as expected to rise through revenue growth and fixed-cost leverage, but reported SG&A grew faster than sales this year, which runs against that framing. Readers may want to look at the full SG&A discussion in the 10-K to see which investments drove the increase, since the excerpt provided does not break it down. Forensic scores: the Beneish M-Score is -2.405, below the -1.78 threshold, so it is not in the elevated manipulation-risk zone. This is a screening result, not proof that the accounts are accurate. The Altman Z″-Score is 3.84, in the safe zone, which indicates low near-term financial distress risk on this model. The Piotroski F-Score is 6 of 8 computable signals, meaning six of the eight applicable simple profitability, leverage, and efficiency checks passed. Operating cash flow was 1.30 times net income, so cash generation exceeded reported profit, which is a supportive sign. The Fog Index is not on file for this MD&A, and no news headlines were available, so this synthesis rests only on the filing text and the figures above. Business-specific context: the risk factors cite tariffs, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, cartel violence in Mexico affecting the expanding international footprint, and the variable-rate credit facility. Liabilities rose to $4.2 billion from $3.51 billion, while equity rose to $2.8 billion from $2.49 billion.

Catalyst.In the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, net sales reached $12.39 billion, up from $11.3 billion, a 9.7% increase. The MD&A describes the Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy, built on three areas: driving core business growth, scaling new accretive businesses, and aligning the foundation for future success. The company reports one reportable segment covering retail stores, salon services, and e-commerce. Gross profit rose to $4.85 billion from $4.39 billion, and operating cash flow was $1.5 billion. International expansion through Space NK in the U.K. and Ireland, a joint venture in Mexico, and a franchise in the Middle East is also presented as a growth lever.

Hidden risk.The gap between sales growth and profit is the item a casual reader could miss. Net income fell to $1.15 billion from $1.2 billion, and operating income slipped to $1.53 billion from $1.56 billion, even though net sales rose. Selling, general and administrative expenses climbed from $2.81 billion to $3.30 billion, an increase of about 17.4%, far faster than sales. Total liabilities rose to $4.2 billion from $3.51 billion. The risk factors also flag variable-rate credit facility interest, elevated tariffs, and weaker discretionary consumer spending, and the filing expects inflationary pressures to continue into 2026.

Market signals · from trading data, not filings

What traders are betting.

The scores above come from what ULTA reports to the SEC. These readings come from how traders are positioned in its shares. They change quickly, they can be wrong, and they are not part of the verdict.
Short interest Shares sold short · reported twice a month
5.7%
of the shares available to trade
Moderate
0%5% · 10% · 20%25%+

The metric

Shares that traders have borrowed and sold, betting the price will fall, and not yet bought back. Brokers report the total to FINRA twice a month. Days to cover divides it by the shares that change hands on a typical day.

Shares sold short
2.4M
Change since Aug 31
+9.0%
Days to cover
4.4

What it tells us

A noticeable minority of traders is betting that ULTA shares will fall.

Little changed since the Aug 31 report (+9.0%).

At normal trading volume, short sellers would need about 4.4 days to buy back every borrowed share.

How investors use it

  • Squeeze watching. Some aggressive traders seek out heavily shorted stocks, betting that good news will force short sellers to buy back shares and push the price higher.
  • Hedging. Funds short one company to offset risk in another, often owning a stronger business and shorting a weaker one in the same industry.
  • Timing. Chart-based traders pair rising short interest with price patterns, such as a break below a level where buyers used to step in, to decide when to enter or exit.
  • Warning sign. Some owners treat a sharp rise in short interest as a red flag and respond by tightening stop-loss orders or holding smaller positions.

Lesson: short interest, explained →

Short-interest report for Sep 30, 2026, via Yahoo Finance. Reports come out about a week and a half after that date.

SEC filings · last 12 months

Annual report, quarterly reports & proxy statement

The annual report (10-K), quarterly reports (10-Q), proxy statement (DEF 14A) and current reports (8-K) Ulta Beauty filed in the last 12 months, each linked to the original document on SEC EDGAR.

  • Aug 27, 2026
    10-Q
    Quarterly report0
    EDGAR →
  • Aug 27, 2026
    8-K
    Current reportItem 2.02: Results of operations (earnings)0
    EDGAR →
  • Aug 17, 2026
    8-K
    Current reportItem 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directors; Item 8.01: Other events
    ★ Curriculum-relevant
    EDGAR →
  • Jul 14, 2026
    8-K
    Current reportItem 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directors; Item 7.01: Regulation FD disclosure (investor materials)
    ★ Curriculum-relevant
    EDGAR →
  • Apr 22, 2026
    DEF 14A
    Proxy statement (2026-06-09)0
    EDGAR →
  • Mar 26, 2026
    10-K
    Annual report (2026-01-31)Period: 2026-01-310
    EDGAR →
  • Mar 12, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-03-12)Item 2.02: Results of operations (earnings)0
    EDGAR →
  • Dec 18, 2025
    8-K
    Current report (2025-12-15)Item 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directors0
    EDGAR →
  • Dec 4, 2025
    10-Q
    Quarterly report (2025-11-01)Period: 2025-11-010
    EDGAR →
  • Dec 4, 2025
    8-K
    Current report (2025-12-04)Item 2.02: Results of operations (earnings)0
    EDGAR →
Further reading · curated for this filing

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Financial Shenanigans

Howard M. Schilit

Schilit's framework for the seven shenanigan types is the standard reference for the kind of MD&A pattern-matching this site does.

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The Interpretation of Financial Statements

Benjamin Graham

The original — and still the clearest — explanation of why working-capital trends matter more than headline earnings.

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Quality of Earnings

Thornton L. O'glove

Out of print, expensive, worth it. The chapter on receivables-vs-revenue divergence applies almost word-for-word to most distressed filings.

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