Constellation Brands, Inc.

STZ Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Delayed 15 min
Last close
$129.58
Oct 16, 2026
52-week range
$110.60 — $168.60
-23% from high
Market cap
21.9B
Diluted basis
Dividend yield
3.2%
P/E
11.6
Trailing
Filing.fyi verdict · Oct 16, 2026

Deep value.

Fiscal 2026 revenue fell 10.5% even as net income rebounded to $1.69 billion.

Bullish Beneish: -2.74Altman Z″: 3.55Piotroski: 6/9Fog: 16.0
RED DEEP 82 / 100
Composite Health
Forensic readings · derived from the latest filing

The four readings.

Each score answers a different question. The composite at the top is the average; the disagreement below is the story.
Beneish M Earnings manipulation
-2.74
Clean
−3.0 threshold −1.78 +1.0
Altman Z″ Bankruptcy proximity
3.55
Safe
0 threshold 1.10 / 2.60 4.0
Piotroski F Fundamental health (0–9)
6
Mixed
0 threshold 6+ 9
Fog Index MD&A readability
16
Dense
8 threshold ≥ 18 = murky 24
AI synthesis · written from this company's SEC filings · not investment advice

What the filing actually says.

AI · forensic preset

Read together, the numbers and scores show a mixed picture. Fiscal 2026 operating income rose to $2.72 billion from $354.9 million, and net income moved from a loss of $81.4 million to $1.69 billion, yet revenue fell 10.5% to $9.14 billion and operating cash flow fell to $2.67 billion from $3.15 billion. The Beneish M-Score of -2.743 is below the -1.78 threshold and is not in the elevated zone, so this screen did not flag manipulation risk; it is a screening tool, not proof either way. The Altman Z″-Score of 3.55 falls in the safe zone, meaning the distress model does not place the company in its distress range. The Piotroski F-Score is 6 of 9 computable signals, a middling result on the signals that could be computed. The Fog Index of 16.00 is in the hard-to-read band, so readers may want to work through the segment tables and the liquidity section directly rather than relying on summaries. Operating cash flow divided by net income is 1.58, meaning cash generation exceeded reported earnings in fiscal 2026, though that ratio says nothing about why the net income swing occurred. Management points to the 2025 Restructuring Initiative, premiumization in Beer, the higher-end Wine and Spirits portfolio, and the Veracruz Brewery timeline. The 2025 Authorization permits up to $4.0 billion in share repurchases, and the 2025 Credit Agreement provides a $2.25 billion revolving facility. The filing also notes Sands Family ownership of Class A Stock and a CEO transition, both of which readers may want to examine in the governance sections. Finally, the MD&A excerpt comes from a quarterly 10-Q for the period ended August 31, 2026, while the financial facts and scores are annual figures, so readers may want to keep those periods distinct when comparing them.

Catalyst.Management's MD&A centers on premiumization: Modelo Especial is described as the #1 beer brand by U.S. dollar sales, the company says it is the #1 dollar share gainer in the overall U.S. beer market, and its Wine and Spirits portfolio has been repositioned to exclusively higher-end brands. Management also cites its 2025 Restructuring Initiative and says commercial production at the Veracruz Brewery is now expected to begin at the start of Fiscal 2028. In the reported numbers, fiscal 2026 operating income rose to $2.72 billion from $354.9 million in fiscal 2025, while revenue declined to $9.14 billion from $10.21 billion.

Hidden risk.Revenue fell 10.5% and operating cash flow dropped to $2.67 billion from $3.15 billion, a decline of about 15.2%. The swing from a fiscal 2025 net loss of $81.4 million to fiscal 2026 net income of $1.69 billion is large, and the excerpts provided do not explain its drivers, so a reader should not assume the improvement reflects the same underlying trend. The filing's forward-looking list also names dependence on beer brands, reliance on limited brewery facilities, tariffs on aluminum and Canadian and other retaliatory tariffs, and possible goodwill or trademark impairments. Long-term debt rose to $9.69 billion from $9.29 billion.

Market signals · from trading data, not filings

What traders are betting.

The scores above come from what STZ reports to the SEC. These readings come from how traders are positioned in its shares. They change quickly, they can be wrong, and they are not part of the verdict.
Short interest Shares sold short · reported twice a month
6.5%
of the shares available to trade
Moderate
0%5% · 10% · 20%25%+

The metric

Shares that traders have borrowed and sold, betting the price will fall, and not yet bought back. Brokers report the total to FINRA twice a month. Days to cover divides it by the shares that change hands on a typical day.

Shares sold short
9.6M
Change since Aug 31
+17.8%
Days to cover
4.1

What it tells us

A noticeable minority of traders is betting that STZ shares will fall.

Short sellers added to their bets: shares sold short grew 17.8% since the Aug 31 report.

At normal trading volume, short sellers would need about 4.1 days to buy back every borrowed share.

How investors use it

  • Squeeze watching. Some aggressive traders seek out heavily shorted stocks, betting that good news will force short sellers to buy back shares and push the price higher.
  • Hedging. Funds short one company to offset risk in another, often owning a stronger business and shorting a weaker one in the same industry.
  • Timing. Chart-based traders pair rising short interest with price patterns, such as a break below a level where buyers used to step in, to decide when to enter or exit.
  • Warning sign. Some owners treat a sharp rise in short interest as a red flag and respond by tightening stop-loss orders or holding smaller positions.

Lesson: short interest, explained →

Short-interest report for Sep 30, 2026, via Yahoo Finance. Reports come out about a week and a half after that date.

SEC filings · last 12 months

Annual report, quarterly reports & proxy statement

The annual report (10-K), quarterly reports (10-Q), proxy statements (DEF 14A) and current reports (8-K) Constellation Brands filed in the last 12 months, each linked to the original document on SEC EDGAR.

  • Oct 7, 2026
    10-Q
    Quarterly report (2026-08-31)Period: 2026-08-310
    EDGAR →
  • Oct 6, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-10-06)Item 2.02: Results of operations (earnings); Item 7.01: Regulation FD disclosure (investor materials)0
    EDGAR →
  • Sep 18, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-09-18)Item 1.01: Signed a material agreement; Item 2.03: New debt or other financial obligation
    ★ Curriculum-relevant
    EDGAR →
  • Sep 8, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-09-08)Item 7.01: Regulation FD disclosure (investor materials)0
    EDGAR →
  • Jul 24, 2026
    8-K
    Current reportItem 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directors; Item 5.07: Shareholder vote results
    ★ Curriculum-relevant
    EDGAR →
  • Jun 8, 2026
    DEF 14A
    Proxy statement (2026-02-28)0
    EDGAR →
  • May 6, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-05-06)Item 7.01: Regulation FD disclosure (investor materials); Item 8.01: Other events0
    EDGAR →
  • May 5, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-05-04)Item 8.01: Other events0
    EDGAR →
  • May 4, 2026
    8-K
    Current report (2026-05-04)Item 7.01: Regulation FD disclosure (investor materials)0
    EDGAR →
  • Apr 22, 2026
    10-K
    Annual report (2026-02-28)Period: 2026-02-280
    EDGAR →
  • Jan 8, 2026
    10-Q
    Quarterly report (2025-11-30)Period: 2025-11-300
    EDGAR →
  • Jun 5, 2025
    DEF 14A
    Proxy statement (2025-02-28)0
    EDGAR →
Further reading · curated for this filing

If this case caught your eye

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Financial Shenanigans

Howard M. Schilit

Schilit's framework for the seven shenanigan types is the standard reference for the kind of MD&A pattern-matching this site does.

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The Interpretation of Financial Statements

Benjamin Graham

The original — and still the clearest — explanation of why working-capital trends matter more than headline earnings.

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Quality of Earnings

Thornton L. O'glove

Out of print, expensive, worth it. The chapter on receivables-vs-revenue divergence applies almost word-for-word to most distressed filings.

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