NIKE, Inc.
NKE Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & AccessoriesFairly valued.
NIKE's FY2025 revenue fell 9.8% and operating cash flow nearly halved year over year.
The four readings.
What the filing actually says.
Read together, the filings show a company whose reported profit and operating cash flow both fell sharply in fiscal 2025, while the 10-Q states there are no material changes to the risk factors from the 10-K. The Beneish M-Score is -2.415, which is below -1.78 and therefore not in the elevated manipulation-risk zone. This is a screening statistic built from relationships among financial statement lines. It is not proof that the figures are accurate, and it does not rule out other concerns. The Piotroski F-Score is 4 of 9 computable signals, meaning the company passed 4 of the 9 basic financial health checks that could be computed, which is less than half. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.15 means reported operating cash flow exceeded reported net income in fiscal 2025, a modest positive. The Altman Z-Score and Fog Index are not on file for this company, so this synthesis does not report values for either. On the balance sheet, total assets fell from $38.11 billion to $36.58 billion and equity fell from $14.43 billion to $13.21 billion, while long-term debt rose slightly from $7.9 billion to $7.96 billion. Concrete items to track include the Note 12 commitments and contingencies referenced for legal proceedings, which the excerpt does not detail, the EMEA ERP rollout and its internal control changes, the paused buyback, and the new 364-day credit agreement. The 10-Q excerpt states that disclosure controls were effective at the reasonable assurance level as of February 28, 2026. Readers may want to look at the Note 12 text and the 10-K Item 1A risk factors on tariffs and sourcing concentration.
Catalyst.The most recent MD&A excerpt, from the 10-Q for the quarter ended February 28, 2026, centers on critical accounting estimates, controls, and forward-looking warnings, so it does not explain segment-level results in detail. The annual figures show what changed: revenue fell from $51.36 billion in fiscal 2024 to $46.31 billion in fiscal 2025, a 9.8% decline. The forward-looking statements cite an increased focus on sport and a rebalancing of the channel mix. The 10-Q also notes a new Enterprise Resource Planning platform implemented primarily in Europe, Middle East & Africa during the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Hidden risk.The most material tension is between cash and reported earnings. Net income fell from $5.7 billion in fiscal 2024 to $3.22 billion in fiscal 2025, and operating cash flow fell from $7.43 billion to $3.7 billion. The cash-to-profit ratio of 1.15 does not offset the drop in both measures. The 10-Q says share repurchases under the $18 billion program were paused in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with $12.1 billion spent to date, and a 364-day credit agreement dated March 6, 2026 was added. The 10-K risk factors describe tariff and protectionism exposure, and factories in Vietnam produced about 51% of NIKE Brand footwear in fiscal 2025.
What traders are betting.
The metric
Shares that traders have borrowed and sold, betting the price will fall, and not yet bought back. Brokers report the total to FINRA twice a month. Days to cover divides it by the shares that change hands on a typical day.
- Shares sold short
- 99.2M
- Change since Aug 31
- +31.3%
- Days to cover
- 3.0
What it tells us
A large group of traders is betting that NKE shares will fall. That is a strong negative view, and also a crowd that would have to buy shares back if the price rises.
Short sellers added to their bets: shares sold short grew 31.3% since the Aug 31 report.
At normal trading volume, short sellers would need about 3.0 days to buy back every borrowed share.
How investors use it
- Squeeze watching. Some aggressive traders seek out heavily shorted stocks, betting that good news will force short sellers to buy back shares and push the price higher.
- Hedging. Funds short one company to offset risk in another, often owning a stronger business and shorting a weaker one in the same industry.
- Timing. Chart-based traders pair rising short interest with price patterns, such as a break below a level where buyers used to step in, to decide when to enter or exit.
- Warning sign. Some owners treat a sharp rise in short interest as a red flag and respond by tightening stop-loss orders or holding smaller positions.
Annual reports, quarterly reports & proxy statement
The annual reports (10-K), quarterly reports (10-Q), proxy statement (DEF 14A) and current reports (8-K) NIKE filed in the last 12 months, each linked to the original document on SEC EDGAR.
- Oct 2, 202610-QQuarterly report0EDGAR →
- Oct 1, 20268-KCurrent reportItem 2.02: Results of operations (earnings); Item 2.05: Restructuring or exit costsEDGAR →★ Curriculum-relevant
- Sep 16, 20268-KCurrent reportItem 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directors; Item 7.01: Regulation FD disclosure (investor materials)EDGAR →★ Curriculum-relevant
- Sep 10, 20268-KCurrent reportItem 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directors; Item 5.07: Shareholder vote resultsEDGAR →★ Curriculum-relevant
- Aug 10, 20268-KCurrent reportItem 5.02: Departure/appointment of officers or directorsEDGAR →★ Curriculum-relevant
- Jul 15, 202610-KAnnual report0EDGAR →
- Apr 1, 202610-QQuarterly report (2026-02-28)Period: 2026-02-280EDGAR →
- Mar 31, 20268-KCurrent report (2026-03-31)Item 2.02: Results of operations (earnings)0EDGAR →
- Mar 9, 20268-KCurrent report (2026-03-06)Item 1.01: Signed a material agreement0EDGAR →
- Mar 5, 20268-KCurrent report (2026-02-27)Item 2.05: Restructuring or exit costs0EDGAR →
- Jul 17, 202510-KAnnual report (2025-05-31)Period: 2025-05-310EDGAR →
- Jul 17, 2025DEF 14AProxy statement (2025-05-31)0EDGAR →
If this case caught your eye
Financial Shenanigans
Schilit's framework for the seven shenanigan types is the standard reference for the kind of MD&A pattern-matching this site does.
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