NiSource Inc.
NI Utilities · Utilities - Regulated GasWatch.
NiSource's 2025 profit rise comes with a distress-zone Altman score and proposed Maryland gas rules.
The four readings.
What the filing actually says.
Read together, the scores and filings give a mixed picture. The Beneish M-Score is -2.369, which is below the -1.78 threshold and therefore not in the elevated manipulation-risk zone. It is a screening model, so this result lowers the flag but does not prove the financial statements are accurate. The Piotroski F-Score is 6 of 6 computable signals, meaning all six signals that could be computed from the data were met; these signals cover profitability, cash flow, leverage, and efficiency. The Altman Z″-Score is 0.49, which the label places in the distress zone. Treat that zone as a mechanical screen rather than a verdict on solvency, because the model does not capture how regulated utilities recover costs. Operating cash flow was 2.54 times net income in 2025, meaning cash generation exceeded reported earnings; the excerpts do not explain the gap. Equity rose to $9.45 billion from $8.68 billion, and assets rose to $35.86 billion from $31.79 billion. Item 1A links the company's generation plans to its 2018, 2021, and 2024 Integrated Resource Plans and cites a federal proposal that, if finalized, would let customers avoid about $675 million in costs contemplated under the 2024 NIPSCO IRP. The company also reports a 72% reduction in Scope 1 emissions from 2005 levels as of year-end 2024. The 10-Q reports effective disclosure controls and no changes to internal control over financial reporting. Labor is another item: 7,668 full-time employees, with 32% covered by collective bargaining agreements expiring between March 2026 and June 2027. Readers may want to look at Note 13 on legal proceedings, the debt footnotes, and the liquidity section, since the excerpts provided do not include recent debt figures.
Catalyst.The numbers show current momentum: revenue rose to $6.52 billion in 2025 from $5.28 billion in 2024, a 23.5% increase that followed a decline from $5.35 billion in 2023. Net income climbed to $929.5 million from $760.4 million, and operating cash flow reached $2.36 billion from $1.78 billion. The 10-Q excerpt provided does not include the MD&A narrative that explains these drivers, so the specific causes cannot be confirmed from this data. The 10-K risk factors do state that the company is assessing data center opportunities, which it says could cause some interim emissions goals to evolve.
Hidden risk.The most material tension is regulatory. The 10-K describes proposed Maryland Public Service Commission rules that would require new gas-main customers to pay the full cost of extending service, along with a Building Energy Performance Standard and a Clean Heat Standard aimed at moving buildings from gas furnaces to electric heat pumps. The company says it cannot predict the final impact. Its emissions projections also excluded data center load growth, and reaching the 2040 net zero goal depends on policies and technologies it describes as not yet feasible at scale. The 10-Q states there were no material changes to risk factors, so these items carry forward.
What traders are betting.
The metric
Shares that traders have borrowed and sold, betting the price will fall, and not yet bought back. Brokers report the total to FINRA twice a month. Days to cover divides it by the shares that change hands on a typical day.
- Shares sold short
- 16.7M
- Change since Aug 31
- +14.3%
- Days to cover
- 2.9
What it tells us
Few traders are betting against NI. Levels this low are common for large, widely held companies.
Short sellers added to their bets: shares sold short grew 14.3% since the Aug 31 report.
At normal trading volume, short sellers would need about 2.9 days to buy back every borrowed share.
How investors use it
- Squeeze watching. Some aggressive traders seek out heavily shorted stocks, betting that good news will force short sellers to buy back shares and push the price higher.
- Hedging. Funds short one company to offset risk in another, often owning a stronger business and shorting a weaker one in the same industry.
- Timing. Chart-based traders pair rising short interest with price patterns, such as a break below a level where buyers used to step in, to decide when to enter or exit.
- Warning sign. Some owners treat a sharp rise in short interest as a red flag and respond by tightening stop-loss orders or holding smaller positions.
Annual report, quarterly reports & proxy statement
The annual report (10-K), quarterly reports (10-Q), proxy statement (DEF 14A) and current reports (8-K) NiSource filed in the last 12 months, each linked to the original document on SEC EDGAR.
- Aug 18, 20268-KCurrent reportItem 8.01: Other events0EDGAR →
- Aug 5, 202610-QQuarterly report0EDGAR →
- Aug 5, 20268-KCurrent reportItem 2.02: Results of operations (earnings)0EDGAR →
- May 6, 20268-KCurrent report (2026-05-06)No specific items found in 8-K.0EDGAR →
- May 6, 202610-QQuarterly report (2026-03-31)Period: 2026-03-310EDGAR →
- Mar 30, 2026DEF 14AProxy statement (2026-05-11)0EDGAR →
- Feb 11, 202610-KAnnual report (2025-12-31)Period: 2025-12-310EDGAR →
- Feb 11, 20268-KCurrent report (2026-02-11)No specific items found in 8-K.0EDGAR →
- Dec 11, 20258-KCurrent report (2025-12-11)Item 1.01: Signed a material agreement; Item 2.03: New debt or other financial obligation0EDGAR →
If this case caught your eye
Financial Shenanigans
Schilit's framework for the seven shenanigan types is the standard reference for the kind of MD&A pattern-matching this site does.
View on Amazon →The Interpretation of Financial Statements
The original — and still the clearest — explanation of why working-capital trends matter more than headline earnings.
View on Amazon →Quality of Earnings
Out of print, expensive, worth it. The chapter on receivables-vs-revenue divergence applies almost word-for-word to most distressed filings.
View on Amazon →