The Mosaic Company

Mosaic's scores give a mixed but mostly reassuring picture. The Beneish M-Score is -2.506. The label places it below -1.78 and not in the elevated manipulation-risk zone, so this screen does not flag the earnings for closer review. A Beneish screen is a statistical tool, not proof either way. The Altman Z-Prime Score is 3.47, which falls in the safe zone (2.60 or above) on this model. That indicates lower financial distress risk by this measure. The Piotroski F-Score is 7 of 7 computable signals, meaning all seven signals that could be calculated were favorable. The Fog Index is 17.83, which falls in the hard-to-read band of 14 to 18, so the MD&A is dense for a general reader. Operating cash flow was 1.53 times net income in 2025, which means cash earnings exceeded accounting profit, but that ratio was propped up by the earlier asset-sale gain and fell as operating cash flow declined. Legal matters are also worth tracking. In the Cruz radiation class action in Florida, a February 20, 2026 court ruling granted summary judgment on jurisdiction under the Local Action Rule, not on the merits. Mosaic's Faustina plant Risk Management Plan matter ended with a penalty of $217,085. A Peruvian environmental penalty proposal against Compañía Minera Miski Mayo is in its defense phase. Readers may want to look at Note 16 and the risk factors for the full status of these matters and the trade-duty litigation.

Catalyst.Mosaic reported 2025 revenue of $12.05 billion, up 8.4% from $11.12 billion in 2024. Operating income rose to $821.5 million from $621.5 million, and net income rose to $540.7 million from $174.9 million. The company reports three segments: Phosphate, Potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes in Brazil. Its 2025 business developments center on portfolio changes and financing. In October 2025 it sold the idled Patos de Minas phosphate unit in Brazil for $111 million, recording a gain of $94 million. In November 2025 it completed a $900 million bond offering, including 4.350% senior notes due 2029 and 4.600% senior notes due 2030. It also agreed in December 2025 to sell its Carlsbad, New Mexico potash mine for about $30 million, with the sale expected to close in the first half of 2026.

Hidden risk.Cash generation weakened while reported profit improved. Operating cash flow was $824.8 million in 2025, compared with $1.3 billion in 2024, a decline of roughly 37%. Part of 2025 net income came from the $94 million gain on the Patos de Minas sale, and the company also recorded impairment losses of about $66 million on the Taquari potash mine sale and about $185.0 million on the held-for-sale Carlsbad mine. Trade policy is another source of uncertainty. Countervailing duty orders on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia are under court challenge. On June 29, 2026, a Presidential Proclamation temporarily suspended collection of duties on Moroccan imports for eight months, while a Commerce Department sunset review found that revoking the Russian order would likely lead to continued subsidies.