Amcor plc

Read together, the forensic scores describe a company whose reported figures look internally consistent but whose disclosure is dense. The Beneish M-Score is -2.468, below -1.78, so it is not in the elevated manipulation-risk zone. This is a screening threshold, not proof that the numbers are accurate, and it cannot rule out problems the model does not detect. The Altman Z-Score (Z-double-prime version) of 1.21 sits in the grey zone between 1.10 and 2.60, a range that signals balance-sheet pressure relative to the standard benchmark, which is relevant given liabilities of $25.29 billion. The Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 8 computable signals, a strong reading on the criteria it measures. The Fog Index of 18.38 falls in the very hard to read band, so readers may want to work through the Berry Plan and segment tables slowly. Several items deserve specific attention. Argentina is reported under highly inflationary accounting, producing $19 million of foreign currency transaction losses in fiscal 2026, although Argentina represented less than 1% of total assets. The strategic review covering businesses with $2.5 billion of combined sales has no set deadline or definitive timetable. The trade policy risk factor describes tariff changes that management says may not be fully offset by price and cost actions. Finally, the board approved a change in fiscal year end to December 31, with a six-month Form 10-K/T covering July 1 through December 31, 2026, which will make year-over-year comparisons harder to read. Equity rose from $3.88 billion in fiscal 2024 to $11.73 billion in fiscal 2025, a change tied to the approximately 846 million ordinary shares issued to Berry shareholders before the 1-for-5 reverse split.

Catalyst.Fiscal 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) was the first full fiscal year including Berry Global, which Amcor acquired on April 30, 2025 for $10.4 billion of purchase consideration plus about $5.2 billion of Berry debt assumed. Net sales rose to $23.51 billion from $15.01 billion, and operating income reached $1.9 billion versus $1.01 billion. Management points to a Berry Plan targeting about $530 million of pre-tax synergies by June 30, 2028, and to portfolio pruning: four businesses identified in the strategic review were sold for $298 million of cash. Management also cites softer consumer demand and higher energy and raw material costs linked to the Middle East conflict.

Hidden risk.Interest expense rose to $676 million from $396 million, and at June 30, 2026 total liabilities were $25.29 billion against equity of $11.79 billion. Amortization of acquired intangible assets climbed to $558 million from $246 million. Restructuring, transaction and integration expenses of $298 million (versus $307 million the prior year) have now appeared in both years, so readers may want to treat them as a recurring cost. Operating cash flow of $2.15 billion is 1.94 times net income, a ratio that is worth comparing against the roughly $157 million of net cash spent on Berry restructuring and integration in fiscal 2026. The Fog Index of 18.38 signals a hard-to-read MD&A.