Autodesk, Inc.

The filings show a subscription business with strong reported growth: fiscal 2026 revenue reached $7.21 billion, up 17.5%, and net income was $1.12 billion. Three forensic readings give different signals. The Beneish M-Score is -2.661, below -1.78, which places it not in the elevated zone; this is a screening measure, and a score in this range does not rule out problems, but it does not flag the earnings pattern for a closer read the way an elevated score would. The Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9 computable signals, a strong result on the nine standard tests of profitability, leverage, and efficiency. The Altman Z-Score is 0.63, within the distress zone; the Altman model is a statistical screen built for general industrial companies and can read low for businesses with large deferred revenue balances, so it should be read as a caution flag rather than a forecast of financial trouble. The Fog Index of 20.48 is above 18, which the readability band labels very hard to read, so the MD&A demands careful reading. Operating cash flow of $2.45 billion was 2.18 times net income of $1.12 billion, which suggests reported earnings are backed by cash. Long-term debt was $2.5 billion and equity was $3.04 billion at fiscal year-end. Over the six months, the company repurchased 4 million shares for $901 million and held $4.36 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. Readers may want to look at the RPO and deferred revenue declines alongside the MD&A's seasonality explanation, and at the risk-factor discussion of macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures that management says may affect fiscal 2027 outlook.

Catalyst.Management attributes growth primarily to subscription revenue, which rose 17% to $1.95 billion in the three months ended July 31, 2026 and 18% to $3.79 billion for the six months, according to the 10-Q MD&A. Management credits growth from its existing customer base. AECO revenue rose 17% to $1.03 billion for the quarter, driven by AEC Collections, Autodesk Forma, and Revit, and AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT rose 14% to $500 million. Recurring revenue was 97% of net revenue for the six months, and net revenue retention was slightly above the company's 100% to 110% range. Operating cash flow rose to $1.47 billion for the six months from $1.02 billion a year earlier.

Hidden risk.The 10-Q reports deferred revenue of $4.26 billion, down 9%, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $7.43 billion, down 10%, both compared with the prior fiscal year's fourth quarter as the MD&A states. RPO was $8.30 billion at January 31, 2026, and current RPO fell 4% to $5.24 billion. Management says RPO varies with renewal timing and seasonality, so part of the decline may be timing, but these forward-looking balances are moving in the opposite direction from 17% revenue growth, a gap a casual reader could miss. Separately, TD Synnex accounted for 8% of net revenue in the quarter, down from 16% a year earlier. The Altman Z-Score of 0.63 falls in the distress zone, which calls for caution in reading it.